In the news
On 20 October, the Executive Director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP), Cindy H. McCain, who called for “full and complete unimpeded access” said that in Gaza “less than a week of food left…People are going to die unless we can gain access.”

On 20 October, the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, was in the region meeting the leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He was quoted by the BBC about the UK's vision of a “future where Palestinian people can live with dignity, with freedom and security” and also that the opening of Rafah crossing into Gaza is imminent. 

On 20 October, the UN Secretary-General stated: “The situation in Gaza has reached a dangerous new low” and wanted to “prevent further dangerous escalation in the West Bank or elsewhere in the region, especially in southern Lebanon…Even wars have rules…Civilians must be protected and also never used as shields.”

On 19 October, the US President, Joe Biden, in a special address, stated: “The terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure unadulterated evil in the world… Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common. They both want to completely annihilate a neighbouring democracy — annihilate it. Hamas’ stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the state of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.”

On 17 October, a rocket attack on a hospital in Gaza caused a huge uproar. According to local sources, more than 500 were killed in the attack. While Hamas blamed Israel, the latter denied it. Independent sources from the US and the UK claim that it could be the result of a failed launch by another militant group - the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The attack has led to spontaneous protests across the Arab region against Israel.

On 16 October, according to the BBC, the Israel Defense Forces announced an evacuation of civilians living two kilometres close to the Lebanon border to “reduce harm to civilians and enable the IDF freedom of action if it is required.”

On 12 October, the Washington Post quoted a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the objective of the new operation against the Hamas. According to him: “Unlike other operations, we are collapsing the governance and sovereignty of the Hamas organization.” The report also mentioned Israel mobilizing 360,000 reservists and armoured divisions. 

On 12 October, on the evolving humanitarian situation in Gaza, the Washington Post quoted the Head of Doctors Without Borders in Gaza, Matthias Kennes, saying: “We know what it was like in 2014 and 2021, thousands died. Each time, our medical colleagues go to work, not knowing if they will see their homes or their families again.” The report also referred to a threat by Israel’s Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Karine Elharrar: “Humanitarian aid to Gaza? No electrical switch will be lifted, no hydrant will be opened and no fuel truck will enter until the Israeli hostages are returned home. Humanitarian for humanitarian. And nobody should preach us morals.” 

Issues at large
First, Israel’s plan for a ground offensive. The government of Israel is planning for a punitive strike aimed at a radical objective – wiping off the Hamas from Gaza. However, the plan risks a huge collateral in terms of civilian casualties. Hence, Israel has asked the civilians in the region to vacate; given the narrow geographic territory, the options for an exodus are limited. In the south of Gaza, Egypt has closed its border. While the US and other Western countries are pressurizing Egypt to open the border, the countries in the Middle East are apprehensive of another round of Palestinian refugees. These countries are pressuring the US to ask Israel to stop any ground offensive. Israel wants to finish off the Hamas; this would involve door-to-door operations in Gaza and a high level of violence.

Second, the likelihood of geographic expansion of the conflict. Although the current round of conflict has started between the Hamas based in Gaza and the state of Israel, the likelihood of its geographic expansion into the north with Hezbollah in Lebanon remains high. Iran is believed to be supporting Hezbollah and wants the latter to act as its proxy. Israel has already issued a warning to its people in the north bordering Lebanon to evacuate. 

Third, the anti-Israel sentiment in the Middle East. The immediate reaction in the streets of the Middle East from the east of Israel to Egypt and Tunisia in the west highlights the anti-Israel sentiments in the region. Despite the diplomatic efforts, the signing of the Abraham Accords and the normalization of relations with the state of Israel during recent months, the public mood on the ground remains the same: anti-Israel. The state in the Middle East seems to be sympathetic to the public mood as could be seen from the refusal of the leaders to meet with the US President who dashed to the region this week.

Fourth, the support from the West. Following an extensive round of meetings and trips in the various capitals by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken came the visit of the US President Joe Biden and the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Repeated statements from Biden indicate the support for Israel and its right to defend itself. 

Fifth, the release of hostages taken by the Hamas. After their surprise attack on 7 October, it is believed more than 200 people of different nationalities, but mostly from Israel, were held as hostages by the Hamas. Israel and other Western countries want their immediate release. Qatar is believed to be playing a major role in getting the hostages released. The air raids and ground offensive by Israel will complicate the negotiations, which is what the Hamas would want.

In perspective
First, Israel’s endgame. The government’s immediate aim is to get the Israeli hostages released by Hamas. However, if the long-term objective is to eliminate Hamas and remain on the ground in Gaza, it would be a long haul for Israel and even be disastrous. Even if Israel succeeds in eliminating the Hamas, how would it want to govern Gaza and who would do it will remain a bigger challenge.

Second, the threat of escalation. The second week of the current crisis has witnessed the threat of geographic and political escalation. If the Israeli troops move into Gaza, they will be moving into the Hamas’ territory. The way that Hamas has triggered the current round of conflict with the firing of thousands of rockets should highlight how well-armed they are now. Any ground offensive will end up being violent and messy in Gaza. In the north of Israel, there is another likely escalation with the Hezbollah based in Lebanon. 

Third, Iran at the centre. Recent developments in the region – the Abraham Accords, normalization of Arab-Israel relations and the internal situation within Israel have taken Tehran out of the Middle East equation. With one swift attack by the Hamas, Iran seems to have occupied the centre again. It has pushed those regimes looking for normalization with Israel on their back foot and has raised the regional public anger against Israel and their respective governments. 

Fourth, the impending humanitarian disaster. The international organizations have already been highlighting the availability of food and water if Israel insists on its embargo and the border points are not opened. The situation on the ground is likely to get worse.